Bellevue Global Macro

The Fund returned -0.39% in November with a volatility of 4.4%. The MSCI World Index in EUR declined by -0.27% and the Bloomberg Global Aggregate EUR-Hedged Index slightly rose 0.05%.
The Fund’s main performance contributors were gold (+0.18%), non-government bonds (-0.12%), government bonds (-0.15%) and equities (-0.30%). Financial markets were driven by two major themes: concerns about a potential AI bubble and expectationsregarding a possible Fed rate cut in December. Gold resumed its upward trend. Government bonds were volatile, with the German 10-year yield ending 5.6 bp higher at 2.69%. Equities slightly underperformed the MSCI World Index in EUR due to the Chinese holdings. Credit lagged broad credit markets because of the emerging market bonds.

We decreased the equity exposure from 33% to 31% to take profits. Within equities, we mainly reduced the Chinese exposure and partially reallocated to the US and Japan. Elsewhere, asset allocation remained broadly stable, with 30% in long-term government bonds, 28% in credit, and 11% in the USD. Portfolio duration remained at 3.1 years vs the long-term average of 3.7 years. The Fund’s main hedges are its 30% European long-term government bond, 4% gold 3% long S&P500 Index put positions.

On December 15, 2025, the StarCapital Multi Income Fund will be merged into the Fund. Investors have been informed in detail in a separate Shareholders Notice. The objective is to offer a focused multi-asset product and to ensure cost-efficient management in the best interest of the shareholders.

We revised our scenarios on October 31, 2025, as follows:

Base scenario: The US economic locomotive. Economies adapt well to tariffs as shown by resilient data and contained inflation. Trade agreements with key partners removed a major source of uncertainty. US equities outperform on a global scale as other major economies benefit from the US growth locomotive but lack their own growth impulse. Equity markets continue to grind higher. This scenario is neutral for credit and slightly negative for government bonds.

Positive scenario: An asset melt-up. Trump’s pro-growth economic policies begin to take effect. The AI investment boom continues unabated, reinforced by additional investments linked to the trade deals. Europe, Japan, and China follow with expansive fiscal measures. Markets expect governments to pressure central banks to be accommodative. Inflation remains contained in the early phase. Markets price in a stronger global outlook, leading to another leg up in equity markets. This scenario is positive for credit and negative for government bonds.

Negative scenario: Market scare. Elevated valuations make markets vulnerable to a correction. Several factors could act as triggers: AI disappointment, rising stress in private credit, and renewed US-China trade tensions. Equity markets correct by around 20%. This scenario is negative for credit and positive for government bonds, though we apply less hedging value to long-term government bonds.