Bellevue Global Macro

The Fund returned -1.03% in September. Over the same period, the MSCI World Index (EUR) gained 1.27%, while the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index (EUR Hedged) declined 1.80%. The main detractors from performance were government bonds (-0.83%) and credit (-0.49%), while equities contributed positively (+0.32%). Commodities had a slightly negative impact (-0.04%).

Market developments in September were dominated by rising government bond yields amid expectations for a more restrictive monetary policy. Both US Treasury and German Bund yields reached multi-year highs. Higher yields weighed on broader equity markets, while US technology stocks continued to perform strongly, supported by the ongoing momentum around AI and Technology. Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also kept energy prices elevated.

Against this backdrop, we reduced the Fund's equity allocation from 46% to 42%, while significantly increasing our exposure to US technology, reflecting the continued strength in technology and AI-related stocks. We also kept our increased exposure to Japan. On the credit side, we maintained our allocation, as carry remains attractive, with increasing base yields partially mitigated by a compression in credit spreads. Within government bonds, we reduced portfolio duration to approximately 2.5 years over the course of the month as yields continued to rise. We maintained the 1% gold position despite limited price momentum and kept the Fund's USD exposure unchanged at approximately 30%.

We modified our scenarios on September 17th, 2026 as follows:

Positive: Energy bottleneck is resolved. AI investment remains strong, supporting corporate capex, productivity and earnings growth. At the same time, tensions surrounding Iran ease significantly, removing a major constraint on global energy supply. Oil prices decline, reducing inflationary pressures and improving the outlook for consumers and businesses. This creates a more supportive environment for global growth and financial markets. The scenario is positive for equities, government bonds and credit.

Base: Resilient growth, stable yields. Economic growth remains resilient, supported by continued AI investment and solid corporate fundamentals. The inflation outlook stabilizes and further central bank tightening is already priced in, keeping long-term yields stable. Equities remain supported by earnings but experience higher volatility. Credit and government bonds benefit from attractive carry.

Negative: Inflation and yields break the market. Iran tensions intensify and renewed pressure on energy supply pushes oil prices higher, adding to already persistent inflation. At the same time, resilient economic growth forces the Fed to tighten monetary policy more than markets expect. Higher rates challenge stretched equity valuations, triggering a correction and wider credit spreads. Negative for equities and credit, while government bonds initially fail to provide effective protection.