Part II JPM Healthcare Conference update: Medtech – conference confirms sector momentum, culminating in M&A «fireworks»

Large-cap stability and growth
Although most large-cap medtech companies – with the exception of Intuitive Surgical – have not yet published preliminary figures for Q4 2025, management discussions with Abbott, Boston Scientific, and Medtronic confirmed that operations are processing according to plan and full-year targets are expected to be achieved. Intuitive Surgical reported very strong Q4 results. Their 18% growth in instruments (procedures) supports our outlook that medical demand continues to see robust, unabated growth.

The Penumbra acquisition and M&A outlook
The final day of the conference was headlined by Boston Scientific’s announcement to acquire Penumbra for USD 14.5 bn. Following the announcement, Penumbra reported preliminary Q4 data showing revenue growth of more than 21%, well-above analyst expectations. We expect further M&A activity in 2026, with a primary focus on high-growth, innovative, and high-quality companies.

Spotlight: EssilorLuxottica (EssiLux)
From a corporate perspective, EssilorLuxottica was particularly impressive. While investor interest is currently centered on smart glasses, we believe the scope and potential of EssiLux’s broader medtech strategy may be underestimated. We project that the customer lifespan can be nearly doubled through this strategy, achieving this both efficiently and profitably.

Turnaround developments
Companies that previously delivered weaker results appear to be returning to a growth trajectory:

• Dexcom: Exceeded expectations with its Q4 figures and has several significant price-relevant catalysts lined up for 2026.
• Alcon: Underlying demand for contact lenses remains solid, cataract procedures continue to recover, and new products are successfully gaining momentum.

Optimism in life sciences tools
A standout feature of the conference was the palpable optimism among life sciences tools companies such as Danaher, Thermo Fisher, Waters, and Agilent. Danaher and Thermo Fisher repeatedly noted that demand for their products has been steadily increasing for several quarters. Notably, Danaher reported a turnaround in its Chinese diagnostics business.