Bellevue Global Macro

The fund returned +0.77% in February with a volatility of 3.5%. Over the same period, the MSCI World Index (EUR) gained 1.50%, while the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index (EUR-hedged) rose 1.28%.

The main contributors to performance during the month were government bonds (+0.30%), equities (+0.23%), gold (+0.20%), and non-government bonds (+0.04%). Financial markets remained constructive overall, although we observed notable sector rotation within equities. Investors moved away from segments such as software and financial advisory, which are increasingly perceived as vulnerable to AI-driven disruption.

Government bonds benefited from the position in long-term German government bonds, as the Bund yield declined by -20 bps to 2.64%. Equity investments underperformed the MSCI World Index (in EUR), due to exposure to Chinese IT and AI-related stocks in particular. Gold recovered ground, almost reaching its recent all-time high. Credit underperformed the broader market due to exposure to Brazilian corporates weighing on performance.

Throughout the month, we kept the equity allocation at 29% to long-term government bonds at 26%, maintaining a relatively cautious stance amid elevated short-term volatility. While we continue to view the macroeconomic environment as supportive, we prefer to wait for more attractive entry points. In credit, we slightly increased the allocation from 34% to 35%, adding attractive investments in Europe and Brazil ahead of bond redemptions.

We introduced a new fixed-income strategy focused on high-quality bonds with an initial allocation of 3%. These bonds, rated A to AAA, primarily consist of covered and supranational bonds. They offer a yield premium over government bonds while providing potential resilience in the event of renewed sovereign stress.

Portfolio duration was increased from 2.9 to 3.2 years, compared with the long-term average of 3.7 years. The fund’s main hedges consist of a 26% allocation to European long-term government bonds, a 4% gold allocation, and a 2% long position in S&P 500 Index put options.

We maintained our scenarios of January 27, 2026 as follows:

Base scenario: Broadening Growth. Despite the new tariff regime, economic data are developing better than expected, with signs of recovery from Europe, particularly Germany. Structural growth drivers such as AI and rising defense spending remain intact, although uncertainty surrounding US trade policy is increasing equity market volatility. Equity markets continue to grind higher, but returns are more volatile. Slightly positive for credit, slightly negative for government bonds.

Positive scenario: An asset melt-up. A strongly supportive economic policy mix accelerates global growth, driven by fiscal stimulus, deregulation, and affordability measures. Europe, Japan and China also adopt more aggressive growth-oriented policies. A newly appointed, more dovish Fed Chair supports additional rate cuts. Inflation initially remains moderate thanks to productivity gains. Markets price in a stronger global outlook, leading to another leg up in equity markets. Positive for credit, negative for government bonds.

Negative scenario: Market scare. Elevated valuations leave markets vulnerable to a correction. Disappointments related to AI, stress in credit markets, and erratic US policymaking could trigger a pullback. Equity markets correct by around -20%. This scenario is negative for credit and positive for government bonds. However, we question the hedging effectiveness of long-term government bonds and assign them a reduced protective role.