Bellevue Global Macro

The fund gained +0.35% in June. Over the same period, the MSCI World Index (EUR) returned +1.25%, while the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index (EUR hedged) advanced +0.24%. The main contributors to performance were equities (+0.47%), non-government bonds (+0.08%), government bonds (+0.01%), and gold (-0.21%).

Market sentiment in June remained largely driven by developments in the Iran conflict. Following a brief escalation early in the month, the parties reached a ceasefire agreement, prompting the US to lift its naval blockade. Oil prices subsequently declined sharply, with Brent crude ending the month at USD 72.92 per barrel, close to its pre-conflict level. The decline in energy prices eased stagflation concerns and supported a broad-based rally in risk assets. The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs, led by semiconductor stocks as optimism surrounding AI-related investment remained strong. Meanwhile, resilient US labour market data and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve under its new Chair, Kevin Warsh, resulted in a volatile month for government bonds. Precious metals came under pressure as geopolitical risks subsided and higher policy rate expectations and a stronger US dollar weighed on prices, with gold declining by 12.2%.

Against this backdrop, we gradually reduced the fund's equity allocation from 48% to approximately 39% following the strong market rally, as we believe that current valuations already price in much of the expected positive outlook. Within equities, we maintained our exposure to structural growth themes, particularly US semiconductor companies, which continue to benefit from sustained AI-related capital expenditure, and retained our allocation to European equities. Within commodities, we exited our remaining 2% gold position. On the credit side, we increased the allocation from 36% to approximately 38% by closing our 1% short high yield credit futures position and investing in selective opportunities across credit markets. We also extended the duration of the government bond allocation from 4.6 to 5.8 years and increased the fund's USD exposure from 12% to 40% towards month-end.

We updated our scenarios on June 25, 2026 as follows:

Positive: AI buildout continues. The AI infrastructure investment cycle continues, supporting corporate capex and earnings. Lower geopolitical tensions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduce uncertainty on energy markets, while lower oil prices ease inflationary pressures. Europe gains momentum through infrastructure and defense spending, with Asia and Japan also benefiting. The synchronized macro backdrop supports equities, government bonds, and credit.

Base: Constructive but questioning markets. Markets continue to recover, supported by resilient economic fundamentals. However, investors remain cautious as questions persist over AI returns, the risk of an overheating US economy, inflation, and Europe’s ability to deliver structural reforms. Overall, the outlook remains positive for equities and slightly positive for government bonds and credit. However, these uncertainties keep volatility elevated. We remain flexible and ready to rotate quickly towards either the positive or negative scenario.

Negative: US overheating triggers a correction. Concerns over AI returns undermine stretched technology valuations as signs of an overheating US economy emerge. Despite easing tensions in the Middle East, renewed geopolitical risks remain possible. Markets begin to price weaker global growth, triggering an equity correction and wider credit spreads. Government bonds initially benefit from safe-haven demand as confidence in the new Fed Chair improves their hedging role.