Bellevue Global Macro

The Fund returned 5.59% in 2025 (-0.10% in December) with a volatility of 4.6%. The MSCI World Index in EUR gained 6.77% (-0.38% in December) and the Bloomberg Global Aggregate EUR-Hedged Index rose 2.68% (-0.39% in December).

This year’s main contributors to performance were gold (+2.40%), equities (+1.15%), government bonds (+0.96%), non-government bonds (+0.89%), and foreign exchange (+0.37%). Financial markets were driven by the US tariff shock, concerns over a potential AI bubble, elevated budget deficits, and expectations around central bank rate decisions. Gold reached new all-time highs. Equity investments broadly matched the MSCI World Index in EUR, supported by developed markets and Chinese IT. Government bonds were volatile, with German Bunds underperforming US 10-year Treasuries. Credit lagged due to a specific emerging market bond exposure.

In December, we reduced the equity exposure from 31% to 24% to take profits, mainly in developed markets and China, and partially reallocated into new thematic equity baskets. We reduced the long-term government bonds from 30% to 25% amid recent weakness. Following a fund merger, we received high quality bonds, increasing credit from 28% to 35%. USD exposure remained stable at 10%. Portfolio duration was slightly reduced from 3.1 to 2.9 years vs the long-term average of 3.7 years. The Fund’s main hedges are its 25% European long-term government bond, 5% gold and 2% long S&P500 Index put position.

Base scenario: The US economic locomotive. Economies adapt well to tariffs as shown by resilient data and contained inflation. Trade agreements with key partners removed a major source of uncertainty. US equities outperform on a global scale as other major economies benefit from the US growth locomotive but lack their own growth impulse. Equity markets continue to grind higher. This scenario is neutral for credit and slightly negative for government bonds.

Positive scenario: An asset melt-up. Trump’s pro-growth economic policies begin to take effect. The AI investment boom continues unabated, reinforced by additional investments linked to the trade deals. Europe, Japan, and China follow with expansive fiscal measures. Markets expect governments to pressure central banks to be accommodative. Inflation remains contained in the early phase. Markets price in a stronger global outlook, leading to another leg up in equity markets. This scenario is positive for credit and negative for government bonds.

Negative scenario: Market scare. Elevated valuations make markets vulnerable to a correction. Several factors could act as triggers: AI disappointment, rising stress in private credit, and renewed US-China trade tensions. Equity markets correct by around 20%. This scenario is negative for credit and positive for government bonds, though we apply less hedging value to long-term government bonds.