Bellevue Global Macro

The Fund increased by +1.78% in April, with a volatility of 4.9%. Over the same period, the MSCI World Index (EUR) rose by +7.91%, while the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index (EUR-Hedged) increased by +0.14%.
The main drivers of performance during the month were equities (+2.04%), non-government bonds (+0.10%), government bonds (+0.01%) and gold (-0.12%).

The announcement of a ceasefire in the Iran conflict triggered a sharp rebound in risk assets. Equities benefited particularly, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs. Credit lagged broader markets, due to existing hedges and some idiosyncratic weakness in Brazilian credits. Government bonds remained volatile and did not participate meaningfully in the ceasefire-driven rally.

Against this improved backdrop, we positioned the portfolio more offensively. We increased the equity allocation from 25% to 33% and managed exposures dynamically throughout the month. Within equities, we increased exposure to US stocks, which continued to outperform, supported by relatively lower sensitivity to higher oil prices and strong structural drivers such as AI-related capex. In addition, as confidence in a sustained ceasefire stengthened, we increased exposure to regions that had been more adversely affected by the conflict, particularly emerging markets, to benefit from the expected recovery. At the same time, we exited our energy equity positions, which had previously served as a hedge against rising oil and gas prices.

Following a stabilization in gold prices and with the investment case remaining intact, we increased the gold allocation from 1% to 3% towards month-end.

On the credit side, we increased the allocation from 29% to 37%. We favoured adding cash bond positions rather than reduce the existing hedge positions, as the tightening in credit spreads was rapid, bringing them back to pre-conflict levels, which are close to historical lows. On the government bond side, we closed the -10% Bund and -5% French 10-year positions following the ceasefire announcement and initiated a 5% long Bund. As a result, portfolio duration increased from 0.4 years to 2.3 years, compared with a long-term average of 3.7 years.

We maintained our scenarios as follows:

Base scenario: Contained conflict. The conflict has entered a lower-intensity phase, with attacks becoming less frequent and less severe. Oil supply disruptions ease and the global economy, which started the year in a constructive position, absorbs the shock relatively well. Inflation rises temporarily due to higher oil prices, but central banks look through it and avoid aggressive tightening. Equity markets remain range-bound and volatile. This scenario is slightly negative for credit and government bonds.

Positive scenario: Rapid de-escalation. The conflict de-escalates faster than expected, whether through the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a weakening of the Iranian regime, or regime change. Oil prices fall back toward pre-war levels, removing inflationary pressure before it becomes entrenched. Underlying economic resilience and structural drivers reinforce confidence. Investors adopt a «buy the dip» stance. Equity markets recover sharply. This scenario is positive for credit and slightly positive for government bonds.

Negative scenario: Oil shock. The conflict remains intense, materially disrupting oil supply and driving a sustained rise in oil prices. The resulting energy shock pushes inflation higher. Central banks face a difficult trade-off and are hesitant to act decisively. Markets begin to price in higher long-term inflation and a global economic slowdown. Equity and credit markets correct. Government bonds are pressured as the inflationary backdrop keeps upward pressure on yields.