Bellevue Global Income

The fund returned +0.55% in June with a volatility of 2.1%, compared with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index (EUR-hedged), which gained +0.24%.

This month, credit contributed +0.36% and government bonds +0.19%. Tensions surrounding the Iran conflict eased significantly, leading to a further sharp decline in oil prices and supporting risk assets. Despite credit hedges remaining in place, credit performed in line with broader markets, supported by emerging market and financial issuers. Government bond yields remained volatile, declining on easing inflation concerns before reversing on stronger-than-expected US labour market data.

During June, we increased the credit allocation from 65% to 68% by closing the 2% short high-yield credit futures position and adding selective credit opportunities. Notably, we re-entered Brazilian Simpar USD 5.2% due 2031 (yield 8.9%, rated BB-) and its subsidiary Vamos USD 9.2% due 2031 (yield 10%, BB-). The logistics group is increasingly being recognized as a strategic asset and benefited from a capital injection by Brazilian development bank BNDES. We maintained the 8% short position in the iTraxx Crossover Index, as we see an asymmetric risk-reward profile, with limited scope for further spread tightening against still elevated risks. We increased the allocation to long-term government bonds from 20% to 41%, mainly via US Treasury 10-years futures. As a result, portfolio duration increased from 4.4 to 5.8 years, in line with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate. The fund offers a EUR yield of 3.8% with an average credit rating of A-.

We updated our scenarios on June 25, 2026 as follows:

Positive: AI buildout continues. The AI infrastructure investment cycle continues, supporting corporate capex and earnings. Lower geopolitical tensions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduce uncertainty on energy markets, while lower oil prices ease inflationary pressures. Europe gains momentum through infrastructure and defense spending, with Asia and Japan also benefiting. The synchronized macro backdrop supports equities, government bonds, and credit.

Base: Constructive but questioning markets. Markets continue to recover, supported by resilient economic fundamentals. However, investors remain cautious as questions persist over AI returns, the risk of an overheating US economy, inflation, and Europe’s ability to deliver structural reforms. Overall, the outlook remains positive for equities and slightly positive for credit and government bonds. However, these uncertainties keep volatility elevated. We remain flexible and ready to rotate quickly toward either the positive or negative scenario.

Negative: US overheating triggers a correction. Concerns over AI returns undermine stretched technology valuations as signs of an overheating US economy emerge. Despite easing tensions in the Middle East, renewed geopolitical risks remain possible. Markets begin to price weaker global growth, triggering an equity correction and wider credit spreads. Government bonds initially benefit from safe-haven demand as confidence in the new Fed Chair improves their hedging role.