Bellevue Global Income

The Fund returned +1.26% in 2025 (+0.05% in December) with a volatility of 2.1%, compared to the Bloomberg Global Aggregate EUR-Hedged Index, which rose 2.68% (-0.39% in December).

This year’s main contributors to performance were credit (+1.26%) and government bonds (+0.32%). Financial markets were driven by the US tariff shock, concerns over a potential AI bubble, elevated budget deficits, and expectations around central bank rate decisions. Credit performance was impacted by a specific emerging market bond exposure, which had an almost 2% negative impact over the year. In line with the Fund’s prospectus, the position was divested in December following a downgrade below B-. In December, credit returned +0.36%, supported in particular by emerging market bonds. Government bonds were volatile in 2025, with German Bunds underperforming US 10-year Treasuries. In December, the Bund yield rose 17 bps to end the month at 2.85%, reflecting ongoing fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty.

Throughout the month, we maintained the credit allocation stable at 62%. Within credit, following the merger of a fund, we received investment grade bonds and sold the European Investment Grade Credit Future. The allocation to long-term government bonds remained broadly unchanged at 30%.

The Fund currently offers a EUR yield of 3.8% with a duration of 4.2 years and an average credit rating of A.

Base scenario: The US economic locomotive. . Shown by resilient data and contained inflation. Trade agreements with key partners removed a major source of uncertainty. US equities outperform on a global scale as other major economies benefit from the US growth locomotive but lack their own growth impulse. Equity markets continue to grind higher. This scenario is neutral for credit and slightly negative for government bonds.

Positive scenario: An asset melt-up. Trump’s pro-growth economic policies begin to take effect. The AI investment boom continues unabated, reinforced by additional investments linked to the trade deals. Europe, Japan, and China follow with expansive fiscal measures. Markets expect governments to pressure central banks to be accommodative. Inflation remains contained in the early phase. Markets price in a stronger global outlook, leading to another leg up in equity markets. This scenario is positive for credit and negative for government bonds.

Negative scenario: Market scare. Elevated valuations make markets vulnerable to a correction. Several factors could act as triggers: AI disappointment, rising stress in private credit, and renewed US-China trade tensions. Equity markets correct by around 20%. This scenario is negative for credit and positive for government bonds, though we apply less hedging value to long-term government bonds.