Bellevue Global Macro

The fund returned 0.35% in August. Over the same period, the MSCI World Index (EUR) gained 1.72%, while the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index (EUR Hedged) was broadly unchanged at -0.01%. The main performance contributors were equities (+0.58%), while government bonds (-0.18%) and gold (-0.02%) detracted and non-government bonds had a neutral impact.

Market sentiment in August was supported by robust economic data and strong corporate earnings, driving risk assets higher and pushing several equity indices to new record highs. The S&P 500 gained 2.7%, with technology stocks performing particularly strongly. At the same time, continued tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and a rise in long-term yields to multi-year weighed on sovereign bond markets. Gold prices rose, while the US dollar weakened.

Against this backdrop, we increased the equity allocation from approximately 36% to 46%, reflecting our more constructive view on risk assets. Within equities, we broadened the portfolio exposure, for example by adding exposure to US technology, global value and emerging market equities. On the credit side, we maintained the allocation broadly unchanged at approximately 39%. Within government bonds, we temporarily increased portfolio duration towards the end of the month, reflecting our expectation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would reaffirm his commitment to fighting inflation and provide greater clarity on the future path of Fed policy. Within commodities, we reintroduced a small 1% gold position as price momentum improved following an extended period of consolidation. We also increased USD exposure from 20% to 27.5% amid a more hawkish Fed policy outlook.

We updated our scenarios on June 25, 2026 as follows:

Positive: AI buildout continues. The AI infrastructure investment cycle continues, supporting corporate capex and earnings. Lower geopolitical tensions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduce uncertainty on energy markets, while lower oil prices ease inflationary pressures. Europe gains momentum through infrastructure and defense spending, with Asia and Japan also benefiting. The synchronized macro backdrop supports equities, government bonds, and credit.

Base: Constructive but questioning markets. Markets continue to recover, supported by resilient economic fundamentals. However, investors remain cautious as questions persist over AI returns, the risk of an overheating US economy, inflation, and Europe’s ability to deliver structural reforms. Overall, the outlook remains positive for equities and slightly positive for government bonds and credit. However, these uncertainties keep volatility elevated. We remain flexible and ready to rotate quickly towards either the positive or negative scenario.

Negative: US overheating triggers a correction. Concerns over AI returns undermine stretched technology valuations as signs of an overheating US economy emerge. Despite easing tensions in the Middle East, renewed geopolitical risks remain possible. Markets begin to price weaker global growth, triggering an equity correction and wider credit spreads. Government bonds initially benefit from safe-haven demand as confidence in the new Fed Chair improves their hedging role.